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Brent Crude Hits $126 as US Plans Strikes on Iran Amid Hormuz Blockade Crisis

Brent Crude Hits $126 as US Plans Strikes on Iran Amid Hormuz Blockade Crisis
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Brent crude surged past $126 a barrel on Thursday, its highest level since 2022, after news that U.S. commanders would brief President Donald Trump on “short and powerful” military options against Iran as the war and naval blockade around the Strait of Hormuz dragged on. The spike, which also pushed U.S. benchmark WTI above $110, intensified fears of a deeper energy shock rippling through already fragile global economies.reuters +1

The briefing, led by U.S. Central Command chief Adm. Brad Cooper, was expected to lay out scenarios ranging from concentrated strikes on Iranian infrastructure to operations aimed at securing part of the Strait of Hormuz and even special forces missions targeting Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium.nbcnews A fragile ceasefire that began in early April appeared to be fraying as talks stalled, while Iran warned it would not bow to pressure from an extended U.S. blockade of its key ports and shipping lanes.reuters

What the New U.S. Military Options Signal for the Iran War

Plans described by officials as a “short and powerful” wave of strikes were framed inside the administration as a way to break a negotiating deadlock with Tehran, either forcing concessions on its nuclear program or delivering a decisive blow before any move to end the conflict.nbcnews Trump has publicly argued that the naval blockade is “somewhat more effective than the bombing,” signalling his willingness to keep up economic and military pressure as long as needed.nbcnews

International law experts warned that any broadened campaign against civilian infrastructure could amount to war crimes, underscoring the legal and diplomatic risks if Washington escalated beyond military targets.reuters Iranian officials, for their part, dismissed the blockade’s effectiveness and vowed to retaliate against any new U.S. or Israeli strikes, feeding concerns that miscalculation on either side could turn a contained regional conflict into a wider war drawing in more Gulf states and non-state militias.reuters

Energy Markets React to Hormuz Chokepoint and OPEC Shake-Up

The Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of global oil and liquefied natural gas normally flows, has seen traffic drop to near zero or single‑digit transits per day since late February, when the latest phase of the U.S.-Israel–Iran conflict began.reuters +1 Analysts said even a small perceived chance of further attacks on tankers or energy infrastructure was enough to propel Brent nearly 7% higher intraday, with one veteran trader warning oil now had “nowhere to go but up” until a reopening of the strait looked plausible.bloomberg

The shock hit as OPEC was already under strain: the United Arab Emirates announced this week it will leave the producers’ group on May 1, removing around 3.6 million barrels per day of output from OPEC’s formal quota system and weakening the cartel’s grip on supply management.al-monitor +1 With U.S. gasoline averaging about $4.23 per gallon, central banks facing renewed inflation pressure, and key importers in Europe and Asia scrambling for alternative barrels, the International Energy Agency and market analysts have begun to describe the current disruption as one of the largest supply shocks in history.bloomberg

The Bigger Picture

The convergence of fresh U.S. strike planning, a prolonged blockade of the world’s most important oil chokepoint, and a historic rupture inside OPEC has turned the Iran war from a regional security crisis into a global economic threat. Whether Trump opts for escalation or restraint in the coming days will shape not only the trajectory of the conflict but also the path of inflation, growth and political stability far beyond the Middle East.