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Trump Threatens Strikes on Iran as Oil Surges Above $110 Amid Strait Crisis

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Oil prices climbed back above $110 a barrel and global markets swung sharply after U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to bomb Iran’s power plants and bridges if Tehran does not reopen the Strait of Hormuz by late Tuesday U.S. time nytimes +1. Brent crude traded around $109–$110 in Asian trading on Monday, while U.S. WTI hovered near $111 after intraday spikes above $114 over the weekend nytimes +1.

Trump’s profanity-laden Truth Social post on Sunday pledged that “Tuesday will be Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one, in Iran… Open the … Strait… or you'll be living in Hell,” escalating a six‑week war that has already disrupted one of the world’s most important energy chokepoints wsj +1. The Strait of Hormuz usually carries roughly 20% of global oil and LNG shipments, and Iran’s partial closure has forced tankers onto longer, costlier routes and fueled fears of a supply shock theguardian.

How Markets Are Pricing the Threat

Oil has whipsawed in recent days, with WTI jumping about 11% and Brent 8% in one session last week, the biggest one‑day gains since 2020, as traders scrambled to assess how much supply might be stranded if the standoff continues nytimes. Brent briefly neared $112 and WTI topped $115 after Trump’s latest ultimatum, before paring gains on reports of possible mediation efforts theguardian +1.

Analysts at TD Securities estimated that nearly 1 billion barrels of crude and refined products could be disrupted by the end of this month if flows through Hormuz remain severely constrained, while Rapidan Energy put potential net losses at around 630 million barrels by the end of June theguardian. U.S. drivers have already felt the impact: the average gasoline price has moved above $4 per gallon nationwide, adding a new inflationary pressure just as central banks were hoping to keep rates steady nbcnews. OPEC+, which agreed a modest May output increase of about 206,000 barrels per day, is seen as unable to offset a prolonged chokepoint shutdown while war complicates logistics across the region nytimes.

Diplomacy, Red Lines and Legal Backlash

Even as Trump vowed to bring “Hell” to Iran, diplomats pushed an alternative path. A proposal dubbed the “Islamabad Accord,” circulated by Pakistani mediators, laid out a two‑stage plan for an immediate ceasefire that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz as soon as Monday, followed by 15–20 days of talks on nuclear curbs and sanctions relief washingtonpost. Hopes that both Washington and Tehran were at least studying the plan helped cool some of the early oil rally and steadied Asian equities, which traded mixed on Monday washingtonpost +1.

The president’s threat to hit power plants, bridges and other civilian infrastructure provoked a sharp reaction from legal scholars and humanitarian groups. More than 100 U.S.-based international law experts signed a public letter arguing that strikes on critical civilian infrastructure and the broader campaign in Iran “raise serious concerns about violations of international humanitarian law, including potential war crimes” axios. UN officials have warned that attacks on power and water systems could trigger large‑scale civilian suffering in a country already reeling from weeks of airstrikes axios. Markets now must weigh not only supply risks but the possibility that broader international backlash could constrain U.S. options—or, if ignored, deepen the conflict.

The Bigger Picture

The latest oil shock underscored how quickly geopolitical threats can ricochet through energy markets and household budgets, even before a single new bomb is dropped. Whether prices remain near $110 will depend heavily on two decisions in the coming days: Iran’s response to Trump’s Tuesday deadline, and the fate of the proposed ceasefire to reopen Hormuz. For now, traders are bracing for more headline‑driven volatility, with one analyst warning that crude will “swing with each headline of the war’s escalation and easing” rather than wait for any clear “all‑clear” moment wsj +1.