Ebola Spreads to Uganda With High Risk of Reaching South Sudan as DRC Outbreak Accelerates

Fastest-growing outbreak in Africa's recorded history

The Bundibugyo strain of Ebola has reached 1,048 confirmed cases and 267 deaths in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) as of June 22, 2026, just 37 days after the outbreak was officially declared on May 15.un That pace sets a grim record: it took only 37 days to reach 250 deaths, compared with 78 days during the 2014–2016 West African epidemic and 130 days in the 2018–2019 DRC outbreak.un The World Health Organization declared a Public Health Emergency of International Concern on May 17, its highest alert level; no approved vaccine exists for the Bundibugyo strain.who

Retrospective investigations show the virus was already circulating undetected in conflict-affected eastern DRC from early April — a six-week gap that allowed it to seed communities before authorities could mobilize.medicalxpress Ituri Province is the epicentre, accounting for over 91% of DRC's confirmed cases, concentrated in the Bunia, Rwampara, and Mongbwalu health zones.who By mid-June, transmission had spread across 33 health zones in Ituri, North Kivu, and South Kivu.who

Uganda contained; South Sudan on alert

Uganda has confirmed 20 cases and two deaths — all linked to travellers from DRC — and has not reported a new case since June 5.who Four infections occurred in healthcare settings, underscoring occupational risks for medical staff.who

A modeling study in The Lancet Infectious Diseases, calibrated to WHO data, now identifies South Sudan as the most urgent preparedness priority.medicalxpress Researchers estimate a 69.3% probability that at least one case will cross into South Sudan within the 12-week modeling window, against 8.6% for Rwanda and 2.0% for Burundi.medicalxpress South Sudan has documented gaps in case management, contact tracing, and border surveillance that the study authors describe as the region's most pressing readiness deficit.medicalxpress

Children bearing a disproportionate toll

UNICEF warned on June 22 that roughly 2.95 million children and adolescents — 54% of the population across 31 affected health zones — face elevated risk.unicef Children account for about 15% of confirmed cases but more than 25% of confirmed deaths, and are nearly twice as likely to die from the disease as adults.unicef In Ituri alone, 135 children have been orphaned, with UNICEF-supported nurseries now sheltering infants separated from caregivers during treatment.unicef

Pre-existing crises compound the danger: more than half of children under five in Ituri are chronically malnourished, allowing early Ebola symptoms to be mistaken for malaria and delaying detection.unicef Misinformation and attacks on burial teams continue to hamper operations.un

Funding demands mount as projections worsen

WHO has expanded treatment capacity from a handful of beds to more than 500 across 19 health zones, and daily testing has grown from 30 to over 2,000 through eight decentralised laboratories.un The International Organization for Migration reports a $35 million funding gap for cross-border surveillance across 11 countries.un Total response costs have reached $1.4 billion, and the central modeling scenario projects confirmed cases could reach around 8,200 by September — with a worst-case exceeding 66,000 if control measures falter.medicalxpress +1