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China and Pakistan Propose Ceasefire Plan to Reopen Strait of Hormuz Amid Crisis

China and Pakistan Propose Ceasefire Plan to Reopen Strait of Hormuz Amid Crisis
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China and Pakistan unveiled a joint five-point plan on March 31 calling for an immediate ceasefire in the war on Iran and the rapid reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, raising the stakes in a crisis that has already pushed oil above $116 a barrel and knocked an estimated 11 million barrels a day offline.axios +1 The initiative positioned Beijing and Islamabad as central mediators just as Washington’s own 15‑point proposal appeared to stall in Tehran.dailysabah

The plan followed a one-day visit to Beijing by Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar, who met Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and later described the blueprint as a “balanced” initiative others could endorse.axios +1 It came after Iran rejected the U.S. proposal as “maximalist” and issued its own five conditions for ending the war, including war reparations and effective sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz.dailysabah +1

What’s in the China–Pakistan Plan — and How Iran, the U.S. and Gulf States Responded

The five points call for: an immediate halt to fighting; rapid peace talks that protect the sovereignty and security of Iran and neighboring Gulf states; an end to attacks on civilians and critical infrastructure, including energy and peaceful nuclear facilities; “early and safe passage” for civilian and commercial vessels; and a comprehensive peace framework grounded in the UN Charter.axios +2 A joint statement stressed that “normal passage” through Hormuz must be restored, a phrase widely read as rejecting Iran’s nascent system of transit tolls that has seen fees as high as $2 million levied on individual ships.middleeasteye +1

Tehran has so far signaled only conditional openness, reiterating that any settlement must guarantee an end to “acts of aggression,” provide assurances the war will not recur, deliver reparations and recognize its control over the strait.dailysabah +1 Washington, which routed its own 15‑point offer through Pakistani intermediaries last week, has not publicly endorsed the China–Pakistan plan but continues to deploy additional forces, with up to 3,000 U.S. paratroopers ordered to the region as a contingency to protect shipping or support a forced reopening.turkiyetoday Gulf governments, already reeling from missile and drone strikes, have cautiously welcomed diplomatic moves but remain wary of any deal that cements Iranian leverage over the chokepoint.wsj

Oil Shock and the Battle to Reopen the Strait of Hormuz

Roughly 20% of the world’s seaborne oil normally transits the Strait of Hormuz; analysts estimate the month‑long closure and attacks have removed around 11 million barrels per day from global flows, leaving a shortfall of about 9 million barrels even after demand destruction and rerouting.msn Benchmark crude has hovered between $116 and $120 a barrel in recent days, and industry executives warn prices could spike to $170–$200 if the disruption persists for several months.msn +1 Saudi Aramco chief executive Amin Nasser said a prolonged closure would have “catastrophic consequences” for global markets, a view echoed by European officials bracing for yet another energy shock.scmp +1

Emergency releases of strategic reserves and the diversion of supplies via Saudi Arabia’s East‑West pipeline, which can carry about 7 million barrels a day to the Red Sea, have only partially offset the loss.scmp +1 Meanwhile, Western militaries are gaming out high‑risk options to break Iran’s grip on the waterway, scenarios that could involve large-scale strikes on coastal batteries and minesweeping operations but also carry significant escalation risks.aljazeera China’s status as Iran’s largest oil buyer and a key customer of Gulf producers gives Beijing a powerful economic incentive to stabilize flows, while Pakistan, suffering fuel shortages at home, has staked political capital on a diplomatic outcome that reopens Hormuz without a wider regional war.i24news +1

The Bigger Picture

Whether the China–Pakistan blueprint gains traction will hinge on its ability to bridge three incompatible demands: U.S. insistence on curbing Iran’s nuclear and missile programs, Tehran’s push for sovereignty and reparations, and Gulf states’ need for secure, toll‑free navigation. If it fails, the world faces a prolonged standoff in which the strait remains a pressure point on the global economy, forcing governments and central banks to navigate an energy shock layered on already fragile growth.