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Trump Predicts Quick End to Iran War as Oil Prices and Markets Swing Sharply

Trump Predicts Quick End to Iran War as Oil Prices and Markets Swing Sharply
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Oil prices and global markets swung sharply on Monday after U.S. President Donald Trump said the war with Iran would end “very soon,” easing fears of a prolonged supply shock that had briefly pushed crude toward $120 a barrel. Brent crude, which had surged as much as 29% intraday on March 9, settled just under $99 and then dropped another 6% early Tuesday, while the S&P 500 reversed losses to close up about 0.8%.time +1

Trump, speaking nine days after U.S. and Israeli forces began strikes on Iran, described the campaign as “very complete, pretty much” and “very far ahead of schedule,” while predicting oil prices would come down.cnbc Iran’s Revolutionary Guard quickly rejected that narrative, insisting that Tehran “would determine the end of the war,” underscoring how little clarity there is on any actual path to a cease-fire.bloomberg

Markets Trade on Hopes of a Short War

Oil’s moves captured the whiplash: Brent crude spiked near $119–$120 a barrel overnight into Monday before sliding back to settle at $98.96, up about 7% on the day, while U.S. benchmark WTI finished at $94.77.thehill By early Tuesday in Asia, both benchmarks were down roughly 6–7%, with Brent around $92.68 and WTI near $88.58 as traders bet on de‑escalation.time

The shift rippled through other assets. U.S. stocks, which had been under pressure for days as the war threatened shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, rallied after Trump’s comments, with the S&P 500 ending higher and Asian markets staging a rebound.time +1 U.S. 10‑year Treasury yields, which had climbed on inflation fears as oil broke above $100, slipped back to about 4.11% as energy prices retreated.nbcnews “Markets are beginning to trade the end of the conflict before it has actually happened,” said Nigel Green of deVere Group.france24

Political Signals Clash With Supply Risks

While Trump cast the conflict as nearing a conclusion, his administration also continued to threaten tougher action if Iran tried to disrupt global oil flows, and the Pentagon delivered a more cautious message on the timeline for operations.cnbc +1 Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, for its part, warned it would decide when the war ends and has hinted at possible retaliation and pressure on energy exports.bloomberg

Major importers scrambled to respond to the price spike. Group of Seven leaders and energy ministers held urgent talks, saying they were “prepared to implement necessary measures” to steady markets but stopped short of an immediate coordinated release of strategic reserves, even as the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve, at around 415 million barrels, offered only a limited buffer against a prolonged disruption.time +1 Some analysts argued the latest sell‑off in crude underestimated the risk that shipping and production problems in the Gulf could persist regardless of political messaging from Washington.time +1

The Bigger Picture

The rapid reversal in oil and equities showed how heavily traders were leaning on the prospect of a quick end to the Iran war, even as combat operations and rhetoric on both sides continued. With roughly one‑fifth of the world’s oil normally moving through the Strait of Hormuz and gasoline in the U.S. already up nearly 50 cents in a week, any sign that the conflict is longer or messier than markets currently assume could reignite the inflation and growth fears that dominated just days ago.thehill +1 Until there is a concrete cease-fire or a clear reopening of regional supply routes, volatility in energy and financial markets is likely to remain high.

time Reuters, “Oil falls as Trump predicts Middle East de-escalation,” Mar. 10, 2026.
thehill Reuters, “Oil soars then retreats, gold drops as Iran war jolts global commodity markets,” Mar. 9, 2026.
cnbc CNBC, “Trump says Iran war will end ‘very soon,’ predicts lower oil prices,” Mar. 9, 2026.
bloomberg India Today / Reuters summaries, IRGC response, Mar. 10, 2026.
aljazeera New York Times, “Stocks Rebound After Trump Says Iran War Is ‘Very Complete’,” Mar. 9, 2026.
nbcnews CNBC, “10-year Treasury yield falls as oil reverses spike,” Mar. 9, 2026.
france24 Business Insider, “Oil plunges 10% on Trump’s Iran comments, but the chaos could continue,” Mar. 10, 2026.
businessinsider Reuters, “Trump threatens to escalate Iran war, but says it could end soon,” Mar. 9, 2026.
cbsnews Washington Post, markets and G7 coverage, Mar. 9, 2026.