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A month-long pause gives way

U.S. forces struck two Iranian rocket launchers on Larak Island on Sunday, the first publicly acknowledged American attack on Iranian positions since late July.cnbc +1 U.S. Central Command said Revolutionary Guard forces had been preparing rockets carrying sea mines for launch into the Strait of Hormuz.apnews +1 Iran reported casualties and promised retaliation, turning a limited operation into a renewed test of whether the six-month conflict can be contained.euronews +1

The attack followed a U.S.-led effort to clear mines from international shipping lanes. Iranian state television later broadcast what it described as ballistic missiles fired at U.S. bases in Jordan; Jordan said it intercepted eight missiles that entered its airspace.apnews

Shipping remains far below normal

The military exchange lands at the world’s most consequential energy chokepoint. About 20% of global oil normally moves through the strait, but security risks have driven traffic sharply lower.apnews +1 President Donald Trump said 24 vessels passed through last week, compared with roughly 130 a day before the war began on February 28.cbc +1

Commercial danger was already evident before Sunday’s strike. A tanker north of Khasab, Oman, was hit by an unidentified projectile on Saturday, according to the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations; no casualties or environmental damage were reported.apnews +1 A U.S.-overseen naval coalition said traffic remained at reduced levels, while Washington said its blockade of Iranian ports had redirected 83 commercial vessels and disabled three as of Sunday.apnews +1

Markets registered the risk immediately. U.S. crude rose 1.8% to $84.94 a barrel and Brent gained 1.9% to $89.79 on Sunday.apnews Those moves underscore how even a narrowly targeted strike can carry consequences beyond Larak Island when normal passage has not resumed.

Economic pressure collides with military reality

The renewed fighting complicates Washington’s recent shift toward sanctions and other economic measures intended to pressure Tehran back toward an agreement.cbc +1 That strategy also reflected concern over depleted U.S. munitions after months of war and the potential cost to readiness elsewhere.apnews

Tehran, however, retains leverage through mines, missiles and drones positioned around a narrow waterway that energy exporters cannot easily bypass.theguardian +1 The immediate question is whether both sides treat the exchange as bounded retaliation or reopen a sustained campaign. Iran’s promise of military and economic consequences, together with its reported missile response, leaves shipping companies and Gulf governments facing a fresh cycle of uncertainty.theguardian +1