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U.S. and Iran Near Framework to End Strait of Hormuz Conflict, Talks Continue

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U.S. and Iranian officials edged closer to a framework to end the three‑month war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, but both sides cautioned that a final deal could still take days and hinges on several unresolved issues axios +1. Oil prices fell roughly 4–5% on signs of progress, even as Tehran publicly rejected claims that an agreement was imminent or that it had accepted U.S. terms on its nuclear program cnn +1.

President Donald Trump said over the weekend that an agreement was “largely negotiated” and would be announced “shortly,” calling it a “great and meaningful” deal or “no deal” at all nytimes +1. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei countered that while “a large portion of the issues” had reached understandings, “no one can claim an agreement is about to be signed” aljazeera.

What’s in the Emerging Framework — and What’s Still in Dispute?

The draft memorandum of understanding (MoU) centers on three pillars: formalizing and extending the ceasefire, reopening the Strait of Hormuz to commercial traffic, and launching a time‑limited negotiation on Iran’s nuclear program and sanctions relief axios +2. U.S. officials described a staged process: an initial move to fully reopen Hormuz and solidify the truce, followed by a 30‑ to 60‑day window of detailed nuclear talks tied to phased sanctions relief and the release of billions of dollars in frozen Iranian assets axios +2.

Control of the Strait of Hormuz — a chokepoint that previously carried about 20% of global oil and gas shipments — remains a central sticking point aljazeera. Washington insists on unrestricted “freedom of navigation” and has kept elements of a naval blockade in place, while Iranian officials and state‑linked media have pushed for a supervisory role for Tehran and hinted at charging for “services” in the waterway axios +2. Confusion also surrounds Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium: some U.S. officials say Tehran has agreed in principle to dispose of or transfer more than 400 kilograms of near‑weapons‑grade material, but Iranian officials have publicly denied any commitment to ship out enriched uranium at this stage aljazeera +1.

Regional and Political Cross‑Pressures on the Deal

The talks unfolded against intense regional and domestic political pressure. Pakistan and Qatar have acted as key mediators, with Iran’s top negotiator and foreign minister meeting Qatar’s prime minister in Doha on Monday after weeks of back‑and‑forth shuttle diplomacy that also involved Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Egypt and Turkey nytimes +2. Many Arab states, heavily exposed to disruptions in Hormuz and spiking energy prices, have urged Washington and Tehran to lock in a lasting truce nytimes +1.

Israel and hawkish U.S. Republicans, however, have signaled alarm, warning that an agreement that merely pauses the war and defers core nuclear issues could leave Iran’s capabilities largely intact aljazeera +1. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has vowed to preserve Israel’s “freedom of action” against Iranian‑backed forces, even if a U.S.–Iran deal is signed, while senior GOP senators have branded the emerging terms a “nightmare for Israel” and pressed Trump to maintain maximum pressure if talks falter eciks +1. Those political constraints, alongside Iranian hardliner skepticism, could complicate ratification and enforcement of any MoU.

Looking Ahead

Negotiators have narrowed gaps enough to move markets and prompt a flurry of diplomatic travel, but the hardest questions — who controls Hormuz, what happens to Iran’s enriched uranium, and how sanctions relief is sequenced and verified — remain unresolved aljazeera +2. With a fragile ceasefire still in place and Trump warning that failure would mean the U.S. will “find another way” to deal with Iran, the coming days will determine whether this framework becomes a turning point in the conflict or another missed chance that sends the region, and global energy prices, back toward crisis cnbc +1.