U.S. and Iran Trade Military Strikes Over Strait of Hormuz, Threatening to Unravel Ceasefire Deal

Ceasefire under fire

Just one week after the United States and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding to end their months-long war and reopen global shipping lanes, a cascade of military strikes is pushing the fragile agreement to the brink. On Thursday, Iranian forces launched at least four drones at commercial vessels exiting the Strait of Hormuz; one struck the upper deck of the M/V Ever Lovely, a Singapore-flagged cargo ship transiting near Oman's coast.apnews U.S. Central Command responded Friday with airstrikes on Iranian missile and drone storage facilities and coastal radar sites along Iran's southern coastline, calling it a "powerful response" to "unwarranted aggression."washingtonpost +1 Within hours, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced retaliatory strikes on U.S.-linked targets in the region, and Bahrain condemned what it described as an Iranian drone attack on its soil as a "flagrant violation" of sovereignty.nbcnews

Competing claims of violation

Both sides insist the other fired first — in a legal sense. Trump called the drone strike "a foolish violation of our Ceasefire Agreement," and Vice President JD Vance warned that "violence will be met with violence."apnews Iran's foreign ministry countered that U.S. airstrikes against its coastal surveillance facilities breached Article 1 of the MoU, which mandates a "permanent termination of military operations on all fronts."nbcnews The core dispute is sovereignty: Iran insists vessels follow Tehran-approved routes through the strait, while Washington and Gulf states reject any Iranian control or transit tolls.nbcnews +1

The MoU, signed June 15, gives the two sides 60 days to reach a final deal; Iran agreed to allow free commercial passage through the strait for that window.nbcnews Before this week's violence, the arrangement had shown early promise — 78 vessels transited on Wednesday, the highest single-day total since the war began, though still far below the pre-war average of 130 or more daily.apnews The IMO has since suspended its convoy-evacuation operation, leaving roughly 500 vessels stranded in the area.apnews

Analysts warn the deal could collapse

Trita Parsi of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft told Al Jazeera the latest strikes are "definitely putting the MoU under immense stress," noting that Israeli military activity in Lebanon — which Iran says also violates the agreement — further raises the odds against it.aljazeera Andrea Dessi of the American University of Rome called the deal "extremely delicate" with "the possibility of collapsing at any moment."aljazeera

Iran's IRGC warned that repeated U.S. aggression would draw "a broader" response, while critical issues — Iran's highly enriched uranium stockpile and long-term governance of Hormuz after the 60-day period — remain unresolved.nbcnews +1 The strait once carried roughly 20% of the world's oil supply daily; a return to full blockade would reignite the energy and inflationary shock that has pressured the Trump administration to reach a settlement.aljazeera