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Ken Paxton Defeats John Cornyn in Texas GOP Senate Primary Runoff

Ken Paxton Defeats John Cornyn in Texas GOP Senate Primary Runoff
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Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton decisively defeated four‑term Sen. John Cornyn in Tuesday’s Republican Senate primary runoff, winning roughly 63% of nearly 903,000 votes counted by mid‑evening and ending more than three decades of Cornyn’s dominance in Texas politics.nytimes +1 Paxton, long dogged by ethical and legal controversies, advanced after a last‑minute endorsement from President Donald Trump, setting up a November showdown with Democratic state Rep. James Talarico in a race national handicappers swiftly shifted from “likely” to “lean” Republican.ksat +1

The runoff capped one of the most expensive Senate primaries in U.S. history, with about $128 million in ad spending, roughly $92 million of it backing Cornyn.washingtonpost Despite a massive financial edge and support from much of the Republican establishment, Cornyn could not overcome Paxton’s appeal to the party’s Trump‑aligned base or the power of Trump’s public backing just days before Election Day.ksat +1

How Trump’s Late Endorsement and Turnout Transformed the Race

Cornyn finished first in the March 3 primary but fell short of 50%, forcing a runoff against Paxton, who consolidated anti‑incumbent and pro‑Trump sentiment.texastribune Polling in early May showed a close race, with Paxton holding only a narrow lead among likely GOP voters.kut That dynamic shifted sharply on May 19, when Trump announced he was backing Paxton, calling him a “true MAGA warrior” and criticizing Cornyn for insufficient loyalty during past fights in Washington.ksat +1

Early‑vote data showed unusually high Republican participation for a runoff, with a 100%‑plus increase in early GOP turnout compared with a similar 2020 contest, particularly in rural and exurban counties where Trump remains strongest.kvue As votes were tallied Tuesday, Paxton quickly opened a commanding lead, winning roughly two‑thirds of ballots in many Trump‑heavy regions and maintaining an advantage of more than 25 percentage points statewide as networks called the race.nytimes +1 Cornyn conceded shortly after 8 p.m. local time, saying, “I trust the voters of Texas, and they made their decision, and I must respect it.”thehill

A Risky Nominee and a Suddenly Competitive Texas Senate Map

Paxton’s victory immediately raised questions about Republican control of the Senate, where the party held a narrow 53‑47 majority before this cycle.keranews National strategists had viewed Cornyn as a safe bet for re‑election; several public polls showed Democrat James Talarico running close to or even slightly ahead of both Republicans in hypothetical matchups, but with Cornyn generally considered the stronger general‑election opponent.kristv +1 After Paxton’s win, the Cook Political Report moved Texas one notch toward Democrats, and analysts estimated Republicans may now need to pour up to $100–250 million into defending a seat Trump carried comfortably in 2024.ksat +2

Democrats signaled they will center the campaign on Paxton’s record, including a securities‑fraud case resolved in 2024, his 2023 impeachment by the Texas House (he was acquitted by the state Senate), whistleblower settlements, and a string of personal scandals.nbcdfw Talarico labeled Paxton “the most corrupt politician in America” and argued that Republicans had “handed us an opening” in a state where Democrats have not won statewide since the 1990s.ksat +1 Within hours of the result, however, GOP leaders in Washington moved to close ranks: Senate Republicans who had privately favored Cornyn publicly endorsed Paxton, underscoring a broader pattern in which the party’s establishment falls in line behind Trump’s chosen candidates.ksat +1

The Bigger Picture

Paxton’s rout of Cornyn underscored how Republican voters in a deep‑red state prioritized alignment with Trump and combative conservatism over establishment credentials, seniority and perceived electability. It also turned what was expected to be a low‑drama hold for Republicans into one of the marquee Senate races of 2026, forcing the party to defend costly terrain while Democrats test whether Paxton’s vulnerabilities can finally crack Texas’ long‑standing GOP wall.

nytimes Houston Public Media; pbs KHOU/AP; ksat Texas Tribune; thehill Cook Political Report via Texas Tribune; washingtonpost New York Times/AdImpact; fox7austin Reuters; texastribune Ballotpedia; kut University of Houston poll via Texas Tribune; kvue The Hill; thehill Texas Tribune (Cornyn concession); keranews Reuters; kristv Texas Public Opinion Research / Public Policy Polling data; dallasnews The Texan; nbcdfw CNN / Texas Tribune.