Holiday fares hit decade highs, but Google says Thanksgiving’s best booking window is still open

A record season, with an important asterisk

Domestic round-trip airfare is averaging $402 for Thanksgiving and $452 for Christmas, Hopper says—31% and 23% above last year, respectively. Its September 24 outlook describes the figures as decade highs. They are market averages, not a quote for every itinerary: Hopper calculates them from demand-weighted prices in the 10th percentile of fares available during the prior week’s searches. media

Expedia’s separate holiday outlook reports a smaller year-over-year increase: 15% for domestic and 20% for international tickets across Thanksgiving, Christmas and New Year’s travel to the top 25 U.S. destinations. That difference is not a head-to-head contradiction; the companies analyze different booking data and trip samples. It is a reminder that a national headline average is not a forecast for any one route. expedia

The booking window has not necessarily closed

Google’s October 5 analysis of five years of Flights data puts Thanksgiving’s lowest average fares about 34 days before departure, within a broader low-price range of 21 to 57 days. For a November 26 trip, October is a useful time to search—not a guaranteed cheapest day. Christmas fares historically bottom around 56 days before departure, with lower prices from late October into mid-November. blog

Booking advice varies by dataset. Expedia says its historical data suggests domestic travelers could save up to $125 by booking Thanksgiving flights by November 5; its date for international Thanksgiving travel is October 15. expedia Hopper recommends booking before Halloween. These are not promises that fares will fall first. media The Washington Post’s review of Google and Kayak data also warns that prices can rise near the holiday. washingtonpost +1

Flexibility may beat waiting for a magic day

Changing the travel dates can matter more than trying to guess when to click “buy.” Hopper’s current Thanksgiving snapshot puts a round trip returning Sunday, November 29, at an average $604, compared with about $350 for travelers returning Monday or Tuesday. Expedia also identifies November 29 as the costliest Thanksgiving travel date among the dates it analyzed. These are broad averages, not guaranteed savings on an individual route, but they make the crowded Sunday return a useful date to test. media +1

Google’s historical analysis puts Monday or Tuesday departures with Tuesday or Wednesday returns about 14% below weekend flights; the day of the week you buy made little difference. blog Compare dates and airports, set a fare alert, and total bags and seats before booking. Forbes notes extras can raise costs; The Washington Post recommends comparing one-way combinations with round trips. forbes +1