Supreme Court Poised to Rule on Mail-In Ballot Grace Periods in Case That Could Reshape Voting Nationwide

A single case, a nationwide ripple

The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its ruling in Watson v. Republican National Committee before the end of June — a decision that could invalidate mail-in ballot grace periods in 14 states and the District of Columbia.kuow +1 The case stems from a January 2024 lawsuit filed by the RNC and the Mississippi Republican Party challenging a state law that allows absentee ballots postmarked by Election Day to be counted up to five business days later.spectrumlocalnews Conservative justices signaled skepticism of the grace periods at oral argument in March, leading many observers to anticipate a ruling in favor of the plaintiffs that would require ballots to be received — not merely postmarked — by Election Day.bipartisanpolicy

What a ruling against grace periods would mean

Washington state alone counted roughly 120,000 late-arriving ballots in the 2024 general election — about 3% of total votes cast — postmarked on Election Day but received afterward.kuow Washington Secretary of State Steve Hobbs told KUOW that the state has already begun urging voters to use drop boxes if they are within a week of the deadline, anticipating the ruling could force rapid changes before the November midterm.kuow The Bipartisan Policy Center estimates that roughly 103,000 mail ballots nationwide were rejected for arriving late in 2024 — about 18% of all mail-ballot rejections — though it cautions that voters in states without grace periods tend to adapt, and rejection rates for lateness are similar either way at around 0.2% of returned mail ballots.bipartisanpolicy

Military and overseas voters face the highest stakes

Military and advocacy groups have asked the court to carve out at least a seven-day grace period for uniformed and overseas voters, who face uniquely unreliable postal access.spectrumlocalnews Lateness is the single most common reason overseas ballots are rejected, accounting for nearly half of all such rejections, and only about 11% of overseas-eligible citizens voted in the 2024 election — compared to 76% of domestic voters.spectrumlocalnews "Sailors are not less American because they're harder to reach," said Veterans for All Voters CEO Alberto Ramos.spectrumlocalnews The court's ruling could fall into one of three categories: uphold existing state grace periods, ban them outright, or allow grace periods specifically for military and overseas voters.spectrumlocalnews

Timing creates urgent pressure for election officials

With the court's term winding down and November's midterm elections approaching, any ruling that changes voting rules would force election officials in affected states to update ballots, retrain staff, and run emergency voter-education campaigns on a compressed timeline.bipartisanpolicy The so-called Purcell principle — a legal presumption against last-minute election-rule changes — may lead the court to specify a prospective effective date to minimize disruption, though it is not required to do so.bipartisanpolicy