ASML’s AI-chip boom pushes its 2026 forecast higher again

ASML’s AI-chip boom is turning into a bigger 2026

ASML raised its 2026 sales outlook for the second time this year, a fresh sign that the artificial-intelligence hardware buildout is still pulling money into the deepest layer of the semiconductor supply chain. The Dutch company now expects full-year net sales of €43 billion to €45 billion, up from a prior €36 billion to €40 billion range, after second-quarter sales of €9.3 billion and net income of €2.9 billion beat expectations. qz +1

The move matters because ASML is the only supplier of extreme ultraviolet lithography machines, the tools used to make the most advanced chips. Chief Executive Christophe Fouquet said AI-related investment is pushing customers to accelerate capacity plans, and ASML said first-half order intake was “extremely strong.” The company plans to add 30% to its 2026 low-NA EUV capacity for 2027 and is weighing another 30% increase for 2028. cnbc +1

That capacity signal cuts against the concern that AI infrastructure spending is nearing a pause. Reuters reported that ASML’s customers, including TSMC, Samsung and SK Hynix, are racing to add capacity for AI-related demand; CNBC also noted TSMC’s June sales jumped 68% earlier this week. If the most constrained equipment supplier is lifting its own output plans, chipmakers are still placing long-horizon bets rather than just digesting existing orders. qz

The risks are still visible. CNBC reported that ASML faces tighter export-control pressure on sales of advanced equipment, while China’s share of ASML’s second-quarter sales fell to 14% from 19% in the prior quarter. ASML still expects China to account for about 20% of total net sales this year, showing that the market remains meaningful even as restrictions narrow what can be shipped. qz +1

Investors initially treated the report as confirmation that the AI capex cycle has more room to run. ASML shares jumped at the open before paring gains, while Investor’s Business Daily said the stock rose after the earnings beat and higher forecast. The cleaner takeaway is not just that ASML beat a quarter, but that its customers are committing to enough future capacity for the company to raise both revenue and manufacturing plans. cnbc +1