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Strait of Hormuz Ship Traffic Stalls Below 10% Despite U.S.-Iran Ceasefire

Strait of Hormuz Ship Traffic Stalls Below 10% Despite U.S.-Iran Ceasefire
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Ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remained at less than 10% of normal levels this week, with only a handful of vessels using the vital chokepoint despite a two‑week U.S.-Iran ceasefire that was supposed to reopen the waterway and ease the biggest oil supply shock in decades nbcnews +1. Hundreds of tankers and cargo ships are still stranded inside the Gulf, keeping roughly a fifth of global seaborne oil and significant gas flows effectively bottled up aljazeera +1.

Washington and Tehran have accused each other of failing to honor the terms of the truce, which was announced on April 8 by President Donald Trump and framed as conditional on the “complete, immediate and safe” reopening of Hormuz jpost. Iran has agreed in principle to allow traffic but insists all ships coordinate routes with its forces, while major shippers, insurers and Gulf producers say the strait is, in practice, still shut nbcnews +2.

Why Ships Aren’t Moving: Risk, Rules and Insurance

Traffic data from firms such as Kpler and MarineTraffic showed that only 5–9 ships transited Hormuz in the 24–48 hours after the ceasefire took effect, compared with a typical 120–140 daily crossings before the war nbcnews +1. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has issued detailed routing instructions around Larak Island and broadcast warnings that vessels must obtain permission from Iranian forces or risk being targeted nbcnews +1.

That ambiguity over who controls passage, where mines may remain, and whether Iran’s conditions violate navigation norms has kept most large oil majors and blue-chip carriers away, leaving movements dominated by smaller, more risk-tolerant operators abc. Additional war-risk insurance premiums that peaked at about 2.5% of a ship’s hull value in March have eased but remain roughly ten times prewar levels, translating into millions of dollars in extra cost per voyage for some tankers travelandtourworld. “This moment requires clarity. So let’s be clear: the Strait of Hormuz is not open,” ADNOC chief executive Sultan al‑Jaber said, accusing Iran of “restricting, conditioning and controlling” access hstoday.

From Oil Prices to Global Supply Chains

The near-standstill has prolonged a historic supply disruption. Before the conflict, Hormuz carried about 20–25% of the world’s seaborne oil and roughly a fifth of liquefied natural gas exports; analysts now estimate more than 600 vessels, including around 300 tankers, are either stuck in the Gulf or waiting to sail, holding upwards of 170 million barrels of crude and fuels aljazeera +1.

Oil prices whipsawed as traders first bet on de-escalation and then repriced the risk of a longer outage: Brent briefly traded above $100 a barrel this week before settling in the mid‑$90s as doubts about the ceasefire grew aljazeera +1. Economists warn the shock is radiating far beyond energy, hitting shipments of LNG, fertilizers, helium and industrial metals that feed manufacturing and food systems from Asia to Europe splash247. Some governments, including India, are exploring sovereign guarantees to keep tankers insured, while European states discuss potential naval escorts once security conditions are clearer travelandtourworld +1.

The Bigger Picture

With talks due in Islamabad and the ceasefire set to expire in less than two weeks, diplomats face a narrow window to turn a fragile pause into a workable regime for secure, unconditional transit through the world’s most important oil chokepoint. Until shipowners, insurers and Gulf exporters are convinced that Iran’s controls will give way to predictable rules and real safety, the data from Hormuz suggests the war’s economic front line will remain at sea.