Xi’s India Return Tests a Thaw Shadowed by Border and Trade Strains

A summit arrival loaded with bilateral stakes

Chinese President Xi Jinping landed in New Delhi on Saturday for the two-day BRICS summit, his first visit to India since 2019. He is due to meet Prime Minister Narendra Modi as wars in the Middle East and Ukraine, trade turbulence and energy security weigh on the 11-member bloc’s agenda.aljazeera The trip also marks the clearest test yet of whether a cautious India-China thaw can survive deeper strategic friction.

The visit follows a series of practical steps toward normalisation after the deadly 2020 border clash: direct flights have resumed, border trade has restarted and high-level contacts have intensified.scmp Beijing says it wants stronger communication and cooperation while managing differences, language that signals stability rather than a broad realignment.aljazeera +1

The border remains the decisive constraint

New Delhi continues to link the wider relationship to peace along the disputed frontier. Although the two governments reached an understanding that ended a prolonged Ladakh standoff and have expanded diplomatic and military dialogue, recent tensions have been reported around Taksing in Arunachal Pradesh.hindustantimes Their roughly 3,500-kilometre Himalayan border remains unresolved, with substantial forces still deployed.aljazeera

India is also seeking more transparency over China’s planned $137 billion dam on the upper Brahmaputra in Tibet, while visa limits and restrictions on key technologies and equipment add to its concerns.hindustantimes The August round of special-representative talks produced an eight-point outcome, including a commitment to pursue an “early and substantial harvest” on boundary delimitation and management, but it did not settle the competing territorial claims.thehindu

Trade offers leverage and exposes dependence

Economic ties give both leaders an incentive to contain tensions. Bilateral trade reached a record $151.1 billion in the year ending March 2026, but India’s deficit with China climbed to $112.16 billion.cnbc New Delhi is expected to press for better market access and more reliable supplies, while Beijing wants India to ease restrictions on Chinese investment.thehindu

The imbalance is not merely numerical. Indian manufacturing and clean-energy plans rely heavily on Chinese components, batteries and industrial equipment, even as India grows as an alternative smartphone production base.cnbc Rare-earth controls, stalled investments and limits affecting industrial equipment remain points of friction despite selective approvals for Chinese-linked manufacturing projects.moneycontrol

For Modi and Xi, success may therefore look modest: fewer border surprises, more predictable commerce and working channels that prevent competition from becoming crisis. The summit can reinforce that managed coexistence, but the unresolved frontier and asymmetric trade relationship leave little basis for declaring a durable reset.