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U.S. and Iran End Geneva Talks with Progress, Set Vienna Nuclear Talks Next Week

U.S. and Iran End Geneva Talks with Progress, Set Vienna Nuclear Talks Next Week
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U.S. and Iranian officials ended a third round of high‑stakes nuclear talks in Geneva on Thursday without announcing a deal but agreed to continue negotiations, as mediator Oman spoke of “significant progress” despite an escalating U.S. military buildup in the Middle East and explicit threats of American strikes on Iran. axios +1

The indirect talks, held at the Omani ambassador’s residence in Geneva, brought together a U.S. team led by White House special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner and an Iranian delegation headed by Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. nytimes +1 The session, which ran for several hours before breaking for consultations, focused on curbing Iran’s nuclear program and sequencing relief from sweeping U.S. sanctions that have hit Iran’s oil exports and banking sector. axios +1

Progress in Geneva, but Big Gaps on Enrichment and Sanctions

Oman’s foreign minister Sayyid Badr al‑Busaidi said negotiators exchanged “creative and positive ideas” and had shown “unprecedented openness,” adding that technical discussions would move to Vienna next week. cnn +1 Iranian state media reported that Tehran tabled a written proposal that keeps uranium enrichment on its soil and rules out shipping stockpiles abroad, while offering caps and enhanced monitoring in exchange for phased sanctions relief. apnews +1

Washington has demanded what officials describe as “clear” constraints to ensure Iran cannot acquire a nuclear weapon, including deep cuts to Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium, estimated in background reporting at roughly 400 kilograms. cnbc Reuters reported that U.S. envoys pushed again for “zero enrichment” over time and for Iran to transfer its most sensitive material out of the country, conditions Iranian negotiators have publicly rejected. nbcnews President Donald Trump has privately warned that Iran “must make a deal in 10 to 15 days” or face unspecified consequences, according to accounts of his recent remarks. axios

Talks Under the Shadow of War

The diplomacy unfolded against what U.S. and European officials described as the largest American military buildup in the region since the 2003 Iraq invasion, including multiple aircraft carrier strike groups, advanced fighter jets and thousands of additional troops. nytimes +1 Trump has repeatedly threatened to order new strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities if talks fail, after U.S. and Israeli attacks in 2025 severely damaged parts of Iran’s program and drew alarmed reactions from world leaders. npr +1

Iranian officials have warned they would respond forcefully to any attack, with Araghchi saying a war would bring “no victory for anybody — it would be a devastating war.” axios On the U.S. side, Secretary of State Marco Rubio called Iran’s refusal to address ballistic missiles a “big, big problem,” even as negotiators in Geneva kept the focus formally on nuclear issues. cfr Oil markets have been on edge, with Brent crude hovering around $70 a barrel amid fears of disruption to Gulf shipping lanes. axios

The Bigger Picture

The Geneva round underscored both the peril and potential of the moment: the closest the two longtime adversaries have come to a new nuclear understanding since the 2015 deal collapsed, but also the closest in years to a direct confrontation. With technical talks due in Vienna and Trump’s informal deadline approaching, the outcome may hinge on whether Washington softens its push for “zero enrichment” and whether Tehran accepts more intrusive inspections in return for credible, rapid sanctions relief. nytimes +1 For regional governments and markets, the coming days will signal whether the world is heading toward a new framework to contain Iran’s nuclear ambitions—or toward another Middle East war.