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U.S. Intelligence Warns Airstrikes Unlikely to Topple Iran’s Regime Despite War

U.S. Intelligence Warns Airstrikes Unlikely to Topple Iran’s Regime Despite War
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A classified U.S. National Intelligence Council assessment completed about a week before the U.S.-Israeli air war on Iran concluded that even a large-scale American assault would be unlikely to topple Tehran’s entrenched clerical and military leadership or bring the opposition to power washingtonpost +1. The finding undercut open talk of regime change from the Trump administration even as strikes killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and devastated key military and nuclear sites beginning February 28 jpost +1.

The document, circulated in mid-to-late February, drew on earlier CIA analysis that judged Iran’s system designed to ensure continuity of rule, with protocols for succession and security forces—especially the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps—expected to hold together even after “decapitation” strikes jpost +1. While the White House publicly described Iran’s regime as being “absolutely crushed,” intelligence agencies warned that Iran and its regional proxies would “probably” pose a persistent threat of attacks on U.S. personnel and bases in retaliation for Khamenei’s killing haaretz +1.

Intelligence Warns of Limits of Airpower as War Expands

The NIC assessment stressed that neither a short, intense campaign nor a prolonged bombardment was likely to produce regime collapse on its own, echoing decades of scholarship that air campaigns rarely achieve political overthrow without a ground component or organized domestic alternative washingtonpost +1. Analysts pointed to Iraq in 2003 and Libya in 2011 as cautionary examples where removing leaders or pulverizing security infrastructure failed to yield stable democratic transitions and instead empowered new hardliners or militias timesofisrael. “It has never worked,” said airpower expert Robert Pape, arguing that bombing alone is “a very blunt instrument” for engineering political change tribune.

Intelligence officials also assessed that Iran’s fragmented but leaderless opposition, combined with the IRGC’s control over the security and economic apparatus, made a rapid transfer of power to exiled figures or protest movements “unlikely,” even in the wake of Khamenei’s death and visible public celebrations in some Iranian cities timesofisrael +1. Any meaningful change, they argued, would depend on mass popular mobilization coinciding with defections or neutrality from rank-and-file security forces—conditions not yet evident on the ground investing +1.

Washington and Jerusalem Press On Despite Warning Signs

Inside the U.S. government, the report sharpened a divide between intelligence agencies and political leaders. President Donald Trump publicly urged Iranians to “take back your country” and likened his goal in Iran to the recent U.S. operation in Venezuela, which he called a “perfect scenario” for regime change tribune +1. A White House spokeswoman insisted the regime was “being absolutely crushed,” while framing the war as necessary to end Iran’s nuclear threat and degrade its missile and proxy networks timesofisrael.

In Congress, most Republicans backed the strikes, but senior Democrats demanded a clearer articulation of war aims and questioned the mismatch between regime-change rhetoric and intelligence pessimism aa. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer warned that closed-door briefings were no substitute for a public explanation, while lawmakers from both parties pushed for War Powers votes to limit open-ended military operations aa +1. In Israel, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed to continue the campaign “with all our force” and touted a “systematic plan” to topple the Iranian regime, even as Israeli military planners signaled they envisioned weeks of air operations but no ground invasion nytimes +1.

The Bigger Picture

The disclosure of the NIC assessment has crystallized the central contradiction of the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran: leaders in Washington and Jerusalem are promising to break the Islamic Republic, while their own intelligence services judge that even a successful decapitation strike is unlikely to deliver regime change and may instead usher in a long, volatile confrontation washingtonpost +2. As Iranian missiles and drones continue to target Israel, U.S. bases, and Gulf states, and as global allies plead for de-escalation, the coming weeks will test whether policymakers adjust their objectives to those sobering assessments—or press ahead with a campaign history suggests cannot achieve its stated political end.

washingtonpost Washington Post; jpost New York Times; timesofisrael Times of Israel; ndtv Reuters; theguardian Haaretz; haaretz Al-Monitor; investing Reuters (threat assessment); timesofisrael Small Wars Journal / Brookings analyses; tribune CNN; al-monitor Iran International / regional reporting; ukrinform CNN (Trump-Venezuela parallels); aa The Hill; detroitnews NPR/Politico; nytimes Times of India; madhyamamonline Reuters (IDF planning).