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Texas Senate Primaries Spark Runoffs as Paxton and Cornyn Vie for GOP Nominee

Texas Senate Primaries Spark Runoffs as Paxton and Cornyn Vie for GOP Nominee
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Texas’ bitter and expensive U.S. Senate primaries headed toward likely runoffs Tuesday night, with early returns and polling pointing to Attorney General Ken Paxton and Sen. John Cornyn locked in a tight Republican fight and Democrat James Talarico narrowly ahead of Rep. Jasmine Crockett in a race that could help decide control of the Senate in November nytimes +1. Spending in the GOP contest alone topped roughly $90–100 million, making it one of the costliest Senate primaries in the country nbcnews.

Texas voters chose nominees in both parties on March 3, the first major primaries of the 2026 midterm cycle. If no candidate in a primary clears 50%, the top two will advance to a May 26 runoff, a scenario most analysts expected in the three-way Republican race featuring Cornyn, Paxton and Rep. Wesley Hunt cnn. Democrats, who have not won a Texas Senate seat since 1988, treated the contest as their best pickup chance of the cycle, especially if Republicans nominate the scandal‑scarred Paxton washingtonpost.

GOP Showdown: Cornyn vs. Paxton Tests Republican Identity

The Republican primary functioned as a referendum on whether Texas would stick with an establishment stalwart or embrace a MAGA-aligned insurgent. Paxton led most late polls with about 38–40% support, followed closely by Cornyn in the mid‑30s and Hunt in the teens, leaving both front-runners short of a majority and pointing to a runoff pbs +1.

National GOP leaders openly fretted that elevating Paxton — who was impeached by the Texas House in 2023 and has faced years of ethics and criminal investigations — could jeopardize what had long been considered a safe seat votebeat. Cornyn warned of a “massacre” in November if Republicans chose Paxton, while Paxton cast himself as a fighter targeted by elites, saying his campaign was about “protecting America,” not personal attacks nbcnews +1. Former President Donald Trump loomed over the race, rallying with all three major GOP contenders but withholding a clear endorsement ahead of primary day cbsnews.

Democrats Split Over Electability vs. Base Energy

On the Democratic side, the race between Crockett and Talarico revolved less around policy than persona and strategy. Emerson College’s final pre‑primary poll showed Talarico leading 52% to 47% among likely Democratic primary voters, with Crockett stronger among Election Day voters and Talarico dominating early voters, suggesting a close finish and potential recount territory if margins narrowed pbs.

Crockett, a fiery Dallas congresswoman with a viral national profile, argued she could supercharge turnout among Black voters and progressives in cities like Dallas and Houston usatoday. Talarico, a young Austin‑area state representative, pitched a “big tent” appeal to moderates, independents and disaffected Republicans, and was backed by at least one sitting Democratic senator who cited his general‑election viability emersoncollegepolling. The contest forced Democrats to confront racial and gender tensions around “electability,” with one activist insisting that such arguments were “rooted in racism” when deployed against a Black woman like Crockett nytimes.

The Bigger Picture

With Republicans defending only two truly competitive Senate seats this cycle, Texas loomed unusually large: a Democratic flip here could be decisive for Senate control washingtonpost. Special-election upsets that put Democrats into a deep‑red Texas state Senate district and a U.S. House seat earlier this year fed party hopes that demographic shifts and Trump fatigue were eroding the GOP’s statewide edge ksat. Whether Texas edges closer to purple in November may hinge on who emerges from these bruising primaries — and how quickly each party can heal its internal rifts before voters return to the polls this fall.

nytimes AP News; pbs Emerson College Polling; nbcnews Texas Tribune; cnn Houston Public Media; washingtonpost Reuters; ms YouGov; votebeat AP Decision Notes; newyorker The Hill; cbsnews CBS News; usatoday Politico; emersoncollegepolling AOL / Senate endorsement coverage; nytimes Politico; ksat Texas Tribune / Reuters special-election coverage.