Estonia Warns Russia Rebuilding Forces, Unlikely to Attack NATO in 2026-27

Russia was assessed as unlikely to attack any NATO member in 2026 or 2027, but was rapidly rebuilding its armed forces and ammunition stockpiles to shift the military balance in Europe, Estonia’s foreign intelligence service warned on Tuesday washingtonpost +1. The report suggested Moscow aimed to multiply its pre‑war force along NATO’s borders two- to threefold, even as it remained locked in a grinding war in Ukraine washingtonpost +1.

The assessment, published in Estonia’s 2026 intelligence yearbook, underlined a widening gap between near‑term threat perceptions and longer‑term warnings from other European officials that Russia could be in a position to challenge NATO by the end of the decade bbc +1. Tallinn’s intelligence chief Kaupo Rosin said there were “not enough resources” for a major attack on the alliance now, but described a race between Russian rearmament and European efforts to reinforce deterrence washingtonpost +1.

Low Near-Term Invasion Risk, Rising Long-Term Concern

Estonia’s report stated that “Russia has no intention of launching a military attack on any NATO state this year or next,” citing the strain of sustaining operations in Ukraine and the need to rebuild depleted units washingtonpost +1. Rosin argued President Vladimir Putin “still thinks that he can actually militarily win in Ukraine at some point,” leaving Moscow focused on the existing front rather than opening a new one against NATO washingtonpost.

At the same time, the yearbook described “drastic measures” to recruit new soldiers and a surge in arms production, with Russia expanding ammunition output and planning new formations along its western flank theglobeandmail. German defence leaders have warned that this trajectory could give Russia the capability to launch a broader offensive against NATO by around 2028–2029, and have urged allies to be “ready by 2029” for a potential conflict scenario bbc +1. Analysts broadly see the late 2020s as a critical window when Russian rebuilding could intersect with still‑incomplete European rearmament unherd.

NATO Fortifies Eastern Flank Amid Hybrid Pressure

While a full‑scale invasion was deemed unlikely in the next two years, Estonia and other allies pointed to growing hybrid and limited‑attack risks. The report warned that any assault on Estonia would likely start with mass drone use “on land, in the air and at sea” across the country, echoing recent Russian drone and missile campaigns in Ukraine washingtonpost +1. Russia has repeatedly targeted Ukrainian cities with large salvos—around 242 drones and 36 missiles were used in a January strike wave that included a nuclear‑capable Oreshnik hypersonic missile, prompting an emergency UN Security Council session and Western accusations of “dangerous escalation” bbc +2.

NATO has responded by hardening its eastern defences since Russia first seized Crimea in 2014 and more recently with Operation Eastern Sentry, launched on 12 September 2025 after Russian drones violated Polish airspace dw. The alliance has expanded multinational battlegroups toward brigade strength, increased air‑policing missions that generated more than 500 quick‑reaction scrambles last year, and is preparing the Steadfast Dart‑2026 exercise to test rapid reinforcement of the Baltics with around 10,000 troops nato +2. Baltic states have also created a “military Schengen” to speed allied troop movements toward the front line turkishminute.

The Bigger Picture

The Estonian assessment highlighted a paradox: NATO territory was not seen as an imminent battlefield, yet both sides were preparing for a possible clash years down the line. European governments now face pressure to use the current window—while Russia is tied down in Ukraine—to close capability gaps, expand munitions production and reinforce their eastern flank, even as they try to prevent miscalculation amid intensifying drone strikes, missile tests and airspace incidents around Ukraine and the Baltic region washingtonpost +2.