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US and Iran Agree on Two-Week Ceasefire to Reopen Strait of Hormuz

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The United States and Iran agreed late Tuesday to a two-week, conditional ceasefire that halted plans for massive U.S. strikes on Iranian infrastructure, in a deal that hinges on Tehran reopening the Strait of Hormuz to “safe passage” for global shipping.cnn +1 The pause, brokered by Pakistan and accepted just hours before a U.S. deadline, immediately sent oil prices tumbling and U.S. stock futures sharply higher.axios +1

President Donald Trump announced he would suspend attacks for 14 days after receiving a Pakistani proposal, calling it a “double-sided ceasefire” and warning that strikes on bridges, power plants and other targets would resume if Iran fails to comply.nytimes +1 Iran’s Supreme National Security Council confirmed it had accepted the arrangement and said talks with the U.S. will begin Friday in Islamabad, where both sides are expected to work from an Iranian 10‑point proposal that Trump has described as a “workable basis” for a broader deal.axios +1

A Fragile Pause Built Around the Strait of Hormuz

The core condition of the ceasefire is Iran’s agreement to allow shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint that normally carries about one‑fifth of the world’s oil.aljazeera Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said that for two weeks, “safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz will be possible via coordination with Iran’s Armed Forces,” language that suggests Tehran will retain tight operational control.axios

Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and army chief Gen. Asim Munir led the mediation push, publicly urging Trump to extend his deadline and asking Iran to open the strait as a “goodwill gesture.”axios +1 A White House official said Israel had agreed to suspend its strikes as part of the understanding.nytimes Yet casualty figures from weeks of fighting — with more than 1,900 people reported killed in Iran and over 1,500 in Lebanon — underscored how much damage had already been done and how limited a 14‑day halt may prove.cnn

Markets Cheer, Allies Warn the Deal May Not Be Enough

Energy and financial markets reacted within minutes. Oil futures dropped as much as 6–16% in early trading snapshots, while S&P 500 futures rose more than 1–2%, signaling a classic “relief rally” after weeks of anxiety over a wider Middle East war and prolonged disruption of oil flows.politico +1 Analysts said the temporary reopening of Hormuz eased immediate supply fears but warned that a short, conditional pause would not resolve concerns about future attacks on energy infrastructure or shipping.bbc

Reactions from U.S. allies and regional partners were more cautious. European officials and the U.N. had already warned that Trump’s earlier threats to hit civilian and energy infrastructure could amount to war crimes, with France’s foreign minister saying such strikes “could constitute a war crime.”cnbc The United Arab Emirates’ senior diplomat Anwar Gargash welcomed de‑escalation but argued a brief ceasefire was “not enough,” insisting that only a broader regional security architecture covering missiles, proxies and maritime security could deliver lasting stability.pbs

The Bigger Picture

The agreement bought time and a diplomatic off‑ramp after weeks in which Trump repeatedly moved self‑imposed deadlines closer to a potentially devastating escalation. The Islamabad talks will now test whether Washington and Tehran can turn a narrow, oil‑focused truce into a more durable settlement that addresses sanctions, security guarantees and regional proxy conflicts. With about 20% of global oil trade still vulnerable to renewed fighting around the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s energy markets — and many U.S. allies — are treating this two‑week pause as a window of opportunity, not an endpoint.aljazeera +1