NATO Allies Set to Commit €70 Billion in Ukraine Aid at Ankara Summit

The alliance's €70 billion test

NATO allies are on course to formally pledge at least €70 billion in military equipment, training, and financial support for Ukraine at the July 7–8 summit in Ankara.nordicdefencesector +1 German Chancellor Friedrich Merz confirmed the commitment on July 1, declaring that European allies and Canada intend to send "a signal of continued support for Ukraine from Ankara" and will not reduce backing for Kyiv.efe

The package draws on prior pledges rather than wholly new money: €30 billion comes from the EU's existing loan program for Ukraine, and a further €40 billion reflects commitments made at NATO's 2024 Washington summit.newsukraine What Ankara is meant to add is durability — a declaration that the same scale of support continues into 2027, potentially lifting total pledged assistance to €140 billion.efe +1

Fractures inside the alliance

That durability is not yet secured. Italy has blocked language extending the commitment beyond 2026, leaving the clause unresolved in the draft declaration days before leaders arrive.liga +1 Slovakia's prime minister has announced he will oppose large-scale Ukraine aid altogether.msn The United States is not expected to participate in the new European funding commitment at all, with Washington's support for Ukraine now flowing through the separate PURL weapons-purchase program.efe

The broader transatlantic rift runs deeper. European allies had expected Ankara to showcase gains made since last year's Hague summit — and those gains are real. Germany will reach 3.5 percent of GDP on defense by 2029, Poland is tracking toward 5 percent, and the Baltic states are already at or above the 3.5 percent threshold.cfr But the US refusal by Spain and Italy to grant basing rights during the Iran war prompted Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth to call European behavior "shameful" and launch a six-month review of US force posture in Europe.cfr Reports suggest Washington may cut F-16 and F-15 jets assigned to NATO by a third and halve strategic bombers.cfr

What Ankara must deliver

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has framed the summit as a meeting of implementation, not promises.cepa +1 Three agenda pillars dominate: holding allies to the 5 percent GDP spending target agreed at The Hague, boosting defense-industry output, and locking in sustainable Ukraine support.nordicdefencesector A full-day Defense Industry Forum on July 7 — more hours than the leaders' session itself — will focus on production capacity and a new AI-enabled NATO procurement portal to accelerate industry access to alliance contracts.cepa

Experts at the Center for European Policy Analysis warn the real gap is not investment levels but integration speed. Allies added roughly $90 billion in defense spending in a single year — "a significant step forward," in the words of former NATO Assistant Secretary General Gordon Davis — yet the West still risks observing the lessons of Ukraine's battlefield without absorbing them.cepa What leaders commit to in Turkey, and what they leave unresolved, will signal whether the alliance is adapting at the pace the threat demands.cfr