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US and Iran Near 60-Day Ceasefire Extension to Ease Strait of Hormuz Tensions

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The United States and Iran appeared to move within days of agreeing a 60‑day extension to their fragile ceasefire, in a draft deal mediated primarily by Pakistan and backed by Qatar, officials and diplomats said on May 23. The arrangement would pause a two‑month war, partially reopen the Strait of Hormuz and sketch a path toward nuclear talks, while President Donald Trump put the odds of success at “50/50.”jpost +1

The current ceasefire, in place since April 8, followed U.S. and Israeli strikes that began on February 28 and quickly drew in Iran’s regional proxies, disrupted shipping and drove oil prices to around $112 a barrel.timesofisrael +1 Mediators described the looming agreement as a “stopgap” memorandum of understanding that could be approved in Washington within 48 hours and then formalized in broader negotiations over the following 30–60 days.jpost +1

What’s in the 60‑Day Extension — and What Isn’t

Diplomatic and media accounts said the draft envisaged a phased easing of the U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports, the gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to commercial traffic, and limited sanctions relief tied to verifiable steps by Iran.jpost +2 Those steps included commitments to discuss the fate of Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium — with options such as dilution or transfer abroad — but appeared to defer the most contentious U.S. demand: an immediate handover of that material.cnbc +1

Earlier ideas to unfreeze up to $20 billion in Iranian assets remained on the table in some form, though any release would likely be staged and reversible.forexfactory A diplomat briefed on the talks said “the deal seems to be going in the right direction. It’s with the Americans now for review,” underscoring that the main obstacle in the short term was political approval in Washington rather than technical drafting.cnbc Trump has coupled upbeat rhetoric about getting “a good deal” with renewed threats of major strikes if talks collapse, leaving both sides preparing for either a diplomatic or military next phase.iranintl +1

Mediators’ High‑Wire Act and Regional Stakes

Pakistan has acted as the central go‑between throughout the crisis, relaying messages and hosting earlier direct talks, with its army chief Asim Munir flying to Tehran this week to press for a deal.indianexpress +1 Qatar, which had kept some distance from this track, dispatched a negotiating team to Tehran on May 22, in what officials described as a sign the process was entering a decisive stage.middleeasteye +1 U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio praised Pakistan’s role and said there had been “slight progress,” while warning against “overly optimistic” expectations.reuters +1

Gulf states, heavily exposed to the closure of Hormuz, have lobbied for a prolonged pause to stabilize energy flows and contain the risk of Iranian retaliation.tacticalreport Oil and financial markets, however, have reacted warily to repeated declarations of progress, with analysts noting that previous truces were undercut within days by Iranian seizures of shipping and new U.S. threats.newarab +1 Any sustainable price relief would likely depend on concrete changes in traffic through Hormuz and credible nuclear verification steps, not just announcements from capitals.timesofisrael +1

The Bigger Picture

If concluded, the 60‑day extension would buy time, not deliver a durable settlement: core disputes over Iran’s nuclear program, its missile arsenal and its leverage over the Strait of Hormuz remain unresolved and politically explosive on both sides.i24news +1 Still, a structured pause that reopens at least part of the Gulf’s energy artery and locks both Washington and Tehran into a calendar for follow‑on talks could reduce the risk of miscalculation in the near term — and offer the first test of whether this wartime diplomacy can move beyond crisis management toward a longer‑term framework.